Aaron Judge contract prediction puts him ahead of Mike Trout who originally appeared on NBC Sports Bayarea
Aaron Judge is experiencing a historic season.
From a clear AL MVP frontrunner to chasing a Triple Crown, the New York Yankees star outfielder is showing up and out this year. Just a few days ago, Judge hit his 60th blast as he got even closer to Roger Maris’ American League one-season home run record (61).
As he puts the finishing touches to a record season, the 30-year-old slugger is gearing up for a huge payday
“Very few people get the chance to talk about renewal. It’s something special to have this opportunity and I appreciate the Yankees wanting to do that.” Judge said: after turning down a seven-year extension, $213.5 million in spring training.
“But I don’t mind going to free agency… At the end of this year I’m going to talk to 30 teams. The Yankees will be one of those teams.”
The Yankees’ seven-year offering would have made Judge the highest paid position player in the team’s history on an annual basis, but yesterday’s price is not today’s price.
In March 2019, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout signed the largest contract in professional sports history, worth $426.5 million. The 12-year contract with the Angels is now the third biggest deal in sports history. Behind football star Lionel Messi, who signed a $674 million 4-year deal with Barcelona football club and NFL quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who signed a $503 million million 10-year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, Judge has a strong chance of not only being the highest paid MLB player in 2023, but also finishing ahead of Trout’s mega deal.
This year, Judge was looking for a $21 million salary for the 2022 season, but the Yankees offered $17 million and even offered to meet halfway for $19 million. The judge eventually agreed with the midpoint of $19 million, with incentives from $250,000 for being named MVP and $250,000 for World Series MVP. But now he’s watching the conversation.
Yankees Broadcaster Michael Kay believes that the Yankees have to bid at least $100 million on their latest bid, bringing the bid to $313.5 million, but even that seems low. So let’s dig a little deeper. Here’s a look at an expected future AAV based on a $313.5 million dollar bid:
The judge’s expected future AAV based on a $313.5 million bid
But after this 2022 season tear, it’s more than reasonable that he could land a massive 10-year contract. A $400 million 10-year deal would give Judge a $40 million AAV, which would put him in second place behind New York Mets pitcher Max Scherzer ($43 million AAV) but above Trout’s $35.6 AAV million per year.
Numbers like this are historic in the league. And though the Yankees like the third most expensive selection in baseball with a $253 million dollar payroll this season, keeping Judge will be first on their to-do list.
By turning down the Yankees’ initial offer, it’s clear that Judge knows his worth and can even test the waters a bit. Time will tell.