Like an Italian grandmother, the NFL is giving us a second helping of Monday Night Football tonight before we’re even done with our first record. Seventy-five minutes after the Titans and Bills started on ESPN, the Vikings and Eagles begin the battle on ABC. Here are three props for BetMGM players that hit my eye like a large pizza pie tonight:
Mattison averaged 4.3 carries per game last season when Dalvin Cook was active. Fast-forward past Mike Zimmer getting the ax and silly off-season speculation that anyone other than Mattison could be Minnesota’s RB2 all the way to the first game of 2022, where Mattison fielded eight carries for 36 yards as Cook’s clear back -up in Kevin O’Connell’s new offense. It’s only a sample size of one game, but it would be a smart move to give Mattison a few extra bins per game to reduce Cook’s increased risk of re-injuring his shoulder.
The Philadelphia defense was last on the approach in Week 1 as they surrendered 181 rushing yards to the Lions. Mattison has hit this gag in each of his 24 career games, recording at least five carries.
Treylon Burks over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)
The NFL player Burks was most compared to during the 2022 draft season was AJ Brown. Tennessee must have agreed, as they traded Brown with Philly and selected Burks to replace him. The rookie receiver from Arkansas spent much of training camp with asthma, but he has performed well in games for a Titans attack that could use a breath of fresh air. Burks had a 15.2% target share in Tennessee’s season opener, catching three of his five goals for 55 yards. His YAC ability could cash in on this prop with a single throw from Ryan Tannehill and we could also see some waste time production in a matchup where the Titans are 10-point underdogs.
Derrick Henry under 87.5 rushing yards (-110)
At some point Henry will fall off a cliff à la Wile E. Coyote. It might be stupid to bet against him, but he’s had nearly 1,000 touches since 2019 and looked a tad slower in the two games he played after breaking a bone in his foot last year. A big part of Henry’s brilliance as a runner is that he covers three-quarters of the defenses, then makes long runs in the last frame when he’s used up their energy as a 247-pound vampire. In Buffalo’s Week 1 win over the Rams, linebacker Matt Milano was the only front seven player for the Bills to score more than 69% of snaps. That decision to rotate defenders helped Buffalo dominate up front all night, firing Matthew Stafford seven times and keeping the Rams at 52 rushing yards.
Statistics provided by Pro Football Reference, PFF and StatMuse.