Five of the best matchups to exploit in Week 3

Five of the best matchups to exploit in Week 3

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Schema-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased stats. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an “apples-to-apples” way. As the season progresses, the data will change. Once we reach week 4, the data gives us an initial set of data to work with, and by week 12, the data is a 10-week rolling set.

Until week 4, this weekly article will focus on the best plays before aFPA takes shape. Let’s take a look at the best matchups for Week 3.

Goff looked great with 256 passing yards and four passing touchdowns against the Commanders in Week 2. The Lions take to the road for the first time this season, taking on a Vikings defense that showed more who they were in Week 2 than in Week 1. Minnesota allowed a total of 496 yards into the Eagles Week 2 compared to 371 Week 1. Aaron Rodgers is a better QB than Goff, but it’s clear that Goff and his attacking teammates are more efficient. Give me that attack with competent coaching against a defense that played to beat their divisional rival, only to fall into what appears to be an elite attack. Detroit has the opportunity to play ball with D’Andre Swift and let Goff cook with Amon-Ra St. Brown and a strong supporting cast. The Lions have already attempted 77 passes and will more than likely go for 30 plus with their defense in hopes of slowing Justin Jefferson down.

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Despite the Week 2 loss, the Houston Texans used Dameon Pierce more and nearly upset the Broncos in Denver. Pierce played on less than 29% of Week 1 snaps and saw work on 62% of Week 2 plays. Week 3 looks like a great week for Pierce (and possibly Rex Burkhead) against the Bears. Chicago has been clubbed to the ground in two games, giving the 49ers and Packers 176 and 203 yards. Pierce also gets to play a defense he knows, practicing against Lovie Smith’s Cover 2 defense. Bears defense coordinator Alan Williams worked with Smith in Tampa Bay and runs parts of that same schedule.

Sometimes it’s as simple as talent shines. Despite being listed as the New York Jets’ WR4 on their first depth chart, Wilson has made his way onto the field. Even if he was considered their fourth option in Week 3, the Jets have performed 25% (10) of their passing plays in “10 staff” (four WR, one RB) this season, according to Sports Info Solutions. The Jets fall from “11 staff” at one of the lower percentages in the league, but it’s safe to say Wilson will be playing more, despite what the team’s website says about his place on a depth chart.

Garrett Wilson announced his arrival with a big week 2. Fantasy managers can confidently join him in lineups after adding him to the waiver.  (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

Garrett Wilson announced his arrival with a big week 2. Fantasy managers can confidently join him in lineups after adding him to the waiver. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

There are upsides and downsides to the Steelers’ passing attack, and Freiermuth has been on the plus side for two games. He has 9/97/1 on 17 targets and gets a Browns defense that will be short and has already allowed tight ends to collect fantasy points. The ghost of Ian Thomas ended Week 1 with its most fantasy points since Week 4 of the 2020 season, and Tyler Conklin saw nine goals and hit double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats in Week 2. Freiermuth has played 85% of the snaps and will continue to stare get from Mitch Trubisky as long as he is the starter and doesn’t make bad decisions when passing plays.

Despite the injuries suffered during the offense, the Cowboys’ defense is doing its job and Dallas is keeping his head above water. The defense is top 10 in allowed yards, yards per game allowed, yards per completion allowed, sacks and points per game. Daniel Jones is an easy target in fantasy. He still has 200 yards left in a game and has compromised the ball more than enough (one INT, one fumble). Jones has also been sacked eight times in two games, the same number of sacks as the Cowboys. If the Cowboys take out Saquon Barkley the same way the Carolina Panthers did week 2, Dallas will be in position to take the win against a divisional opponent.

[Week 3 Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | DST | Kickers]

Honorable Mentions

Derek Carr @ Titans

Bears backfield vs. Texans

Tyler Lockett vs. Falcons

Jakobi Meyers vs. Ravens

Chris Olave @ Panthers

Nico Collins @ Bears

Chargers Defense vs Jaguars

Chiefs Defense @ Colts

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Jeff has been playing fantasy sports since 2001. For the better part of a decade, he has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro and amateur levels. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made his name in college, Jeff enjoys running (fixing), followed by doing nothing at all.

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