Gamblers love Oklahoma, but the line is moving the other way

Gamblers love Oklahoma, but the line is moving the other way

One of the key indicators of competitive money in sports betting is the reverse line movement. If the audience loads on one side of a spread and the line moves in the opposite direction, it usually means the wise are on the other side. Of course, wise men lose bets all the time, so it’s not worth a huge overreaction if you’re relying on your handicap. But a game on Saturday’s college football lei has seen significant movement in the reverse, and it’s intriguing to say the least.

Gamblers love Oklahoma, but the market is moving the other way

Oklahoma opened the week as a 14.5-point favorite on the road in Lincoln against Nebraska. After Nebraska fired Scott Frost this weekend, the betting market started to take off. Currently, Nebraska is just an 11-point underdog at BetMGM.

What’s interesting is that as of Friday morning Oklahoma is the most popular bet of any party on Saturday’s college football game. No team has received more bets than the Sooners. Overall, 76% of the bets and 64% of the handle support Oklahoma to cover as the favorite. Usually when we see unilateral action the line will move in favor of the team getting the bets, not against them.

The love for Oklahoma makes sense. They are ranked 6th in the AP poll, surpassing UTEP and Kent State with a combined score of 78-16 in the first two weeks of the season. On the other hand, Nebraska has already lost twice this season as a double-digit favorite. However, there was hope for Nebraska to go into the season and maybe the coaching change will have an impact. It is also a rivalry game. The line movement is too suspicious to ignore completely.

NORMAN, OK - SEPTEMBER 3: Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel #8 celebrates a 12-yard rushing touchdown with left guard McKade Mettauer #72, tight end Brayden Willis #9 and centers Andrew Raym #73 against the UTEP Miners in the first quarter at the Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on September 3, 2022 in Norman, Oklahoma.  Oklahoma won 45-13.  (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

Dillon Gabriel and Oklahoma are a popular bet leading up to week 3 of the college football season. (Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

Michigan State is a popular underdog

In college basketball, an unranked team that is preferred at home against a ranked team is a very popular betting angle. While not as pronounced in college football, it certainly raises the antenna.

Washington is currently a 3-point home favorite against the No. 11 Michigan State, and it’s not surprising that gamblers everywhere are underdogs. Michigan State is the second most popular bet in terms of both total bets and total bets. In general, 80% of the bets and 81% of the money are on the Spartans. Despite that, the line has moved to three after opening at 2.5 points.

Both teams come in with a 2-0 record. The Spartans have surpassed Western Michigan and Akron by a combined score of 87-13, while the Huskies have beaten Kent and Portland State by a combined score of 97-26.

Michigan State was a popular and profitable bet last season as analytics and the betting market were not sold on them despite their successful 11-2 record. Will such a trend continue in 2022?

USC’s hype train leaves the station

USC’s attack has lived up to and exceeded all preseason expectations. They rank top-5 in both runs scored and yards-per-play for two weeks. Caleb Williams currently has the second best chance of winning the Heisman. Jordan Addison and Mario Williams are arguably the best receiving duo in college football. Lincoln Riley has long been considered an offensive genius after developing the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in Oklahoma.

It seems that the hype for USC is strong. The Trojans are a 12.5-point home favorite against Fresno State and bettors are lining up to take the points with USC. In total, 69% of the bets and 68% of the money are on USC to cover the spread as the favorite. The Trojans are the third most popular bet of any team on Saturday’s schedule.

Fresno State put a Pac-12 disruption on the road last year when they beat UCLA in a wild game. They have an accomplished quarterback in Jake Haener, who is in his sixth year of college football. USC has forced sales, but has also given up yards. Defense would always be the concern with the Trojans. However, those concerns aren’t enough to keep gamblers away from them on Saturdays.

Other popular bets

Which other schools receive a large majority of betting actions ahead of Saturday’s games?

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